The Value of Prediction Markets

Individuals can struggle to make accurate predictions about the future, but a ‘prediction market’ can take inputs from large groups and many experts and settle upon a probability, just as a trade market settles on a value for a particular good. — Dr. Robin Hanson

Prediction markets have been shown to identify disruptive or break-through concept potential better than traditional testing. The further out from an event, the more accurate prediction markets become.

Prediction markets have generated forecasts for a wide variety of purposes for example: who will win the Grammy Awards, sales of a particular product, and how bad the winter season will be. This information is useful not only to traders wishing to profit from their forecasting and information-gathering abilities, but to researchers, businesses, governments, and others.

Similar to within the world of finance, prediction markets are speculative markets used to forecast future interests or trends.

Stox is an open source, Ethereum based platform for prediction markets where people can trade the outcome of events in almost any imaginable category — sports, celebrity marriages, election results and even the weather.

Many prediction verticals are not currently available in current prediction markets including weather, current events, environmental, social, entertainment, decisions and policy set by governments and many more. These offer great potential and the chance for Stox’s users to find new ways to profit from leveraging their interests and personal knowledge.

Participants are asked to made their prediction, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches to deliver a combined outcome as reliable as industry leading survey approaches with additional insights and differentiation.

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